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🌏 Mongolia’s foreign trade strengthened sharply in the first seven months of 2026, supported by a substantial rebound in mineral exports. Total merchandise trade reached USD 19.4 billion, up 36.0% from the same period last year. Exports climbed 57.5% year on year to USD 12.2 billion, while imports increased 10.4% to USD 7.2 billion, lifting the trade surplus to approximately USD 5.0 billion, four times the level recorded a year earlier.

⛏️ Copper and coal were the primary drivers of the export expansion. Export revenue from copper ore and concentrate increased by USD 2.58 billion to USD 5.46 billion, while coal exports rose by USD 1.72 billion to USD 4.64 billion. Export volumes also expanded significantly, with coal shipments reaching 65.6 million tonnes and copper concentrate exports rising to 1.53 million tonnes. Together, copper concentrate and coal accounted for more than 80% of Mongolia’s total exports during the period.

🇨🇳 China remained Mongolia’s dominant export destination, accounting for 94.3% of total exports, equivalent to USD 11.52 billion. Copper concentrate represented 47.4% of exports to China and coal another 41.0%, highlighting Mongolia’s continued reliance on mineral demand from its southern neighbor.

🛢️ On the import side, spending rose to USD 7.16 billion, driven primarily by higher petroleum-product imports. Mineral-product imports increased 35.7% to USD 1.80 billion, including a USD 403.7 million increase in petroleum products. By contrast, imports of vehicles and related parts declined 17.8%, with passenger-car imports falling 20.3% year on year.

📌 Key Takeaways

• Exports: USD 12.2 billion, +57.5% YoY

• Imports: USD 7.2 billion, +10.4% YoY

• Trade surplus: USD 5.0 billion, approximately 4x YoY

• Copper concentrate exports: USD 5.46 billion, +89.7% YoY

• Coal exports: USD 4.64 billion, +59.0% YoY

• China: 94.3% of Mongolia’s total exports

💡 Ard Insight

Mongolia’s widening trade surplus provides a supportive backdrop for foreign-exchange inflows, the balance of payments and external buffers, while stronger copper and coal shipments reinforce the mining sector’s role as the principal engine of export growth.

However, the increasingly concentrated export structure remains a key vulnerability: copper concentrate and coal now account for roughly 83% of total exports, while China absorbs more than 94% of Mongolia’s export revenue. This leaves the external outlook particularly sensitive to Chinese commodity demand, mineral prices and cross-border logistics.

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